GRE写作Argument模拟题 第5篇

作者用词生动多样，学术词汇使用比较准确，但有少数拼写错误；复杂句使用不错，句法规范；文章结构不够严谨，应增加过程性词汇的使用。

In this argument, the author recommend her client to invest in Consolidated Industries, a retail company major in home heating oil business. Her recommendation is based on the prediction with the increased demand for heating oil in the next few years. In order to support her conclusion, she mentions that a traditional way for most homes in the northeastern United States, where are typically cold, oil is their major fuel for heating. Moreover, climate forecasters predict that the harsh winter with 90 days below-normal temperatures has the tendency to last for several more years. She also cites that due to response to population growth, many new homes are being built in this region. Close scrutiny of the evidence reveals that without providing additional information mentioned above, her conclusion and recommendation can remain, at best, questionable. The author bases her claim partly on the fact that the growth of population and construction of new homes in this region, which would lead to the augment demand of heating oil during winter time.However, this need not be the case. Perhaps, these new homes have adapted with new heating system under the consideration of environment protection and sustainable of energy. It is entirely possible that the new heating system depends on electricity as it\\\'s major energy to provide heat. Produced by wind and water, electricity is one of the cleanest and accessible energy today. If so, the demand for heating oil might not augment. Only if the author could provide additional information that the major fuel used for the heating system remain unchanged, the conclusion would be untrustworthy. To further support her conclusion, the author claims that according to the climate forecasters\\\' prediction, the harsh weather pattern with 90 days below-normal temperatures will last for several more years. Underlying this inference is the unwarranted assumption that the prediction is fundamentally trustworthy. In fact, this prediction might not be made by professional forecasters. Perhaps, the prediction is only based on the statistics of last heating season, which lacking cautiously analyse the tendency of the past few years.Or perhaps, this prediction is made by the Consolidated Industries for the purpose of attracting more potential investors. It is entirely possible that the heating season in the next few years would be much shorter than last year. If so, this would further undermine the prediction\\\'s reliability. Even if the prediction is reliable and the heating system of the new homes remain unchanged, it doesn\\\'t necessarily mean that the total amount of demand for heating oil would increase. It is possibly likely that the demand in other region drop rapidly which cause a significant decline of the demand. In conclusion, the author\\\'s evidence lends little credible support to her recommendation. To strengthen it, the author must provide better evidence such as the heating system for the new house, the credibility of the prediction and the statistics of the entire retail company\\\'s statistics.