托福Toefl作文模拟题附范文 第52篇:草率的判断是否可信

作者词汇基本功不错，高级词汇表达灵活熟练；从句使用量不足，应增加从句和复合句的使用；全文结构较为严谨。

Natural disaster, is a natural phenomenon bringing about long-term harm and damage to human beings. It is not only a cause of economic and social loss, but also a severe test for the survival of the Earth's biological. Whether it is before or now, its influence is ubiquitous, and some even catastrophic. The heat wave in 2003 made the year's hottest summer in Europe since 1500, leading to more than 70,000 deaths (Robine et al. 2008; Stott et al. 2004). The Haiti earthquake on 12 January, 2010 resulted in a total of more than 230,000 deaths and a loss of $ 8-140 billion (Hayes et al .2010), which, according to statistics, was the earthquake causing the largest number of death in the twenty-first century. On 1 May, 2016, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, suffered the most serious forest fire in its history; the fire lasted nearly three weeks and 88,000 residents were forced to evacuate, sweeping about 3,000 km² of land, destroying thousands of homes and buildings (Simms et al .2016). The impact of natural disasters on human beings cannot be ignored, for which the government launches various meetings and government behavior, in order to actively respond to the series of impacts caused by natural disasters. In 1992, The United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the world's first international convention to address the economic and social impacts of climate change on human beings. Since its inception in 1995, the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changeh has been held every year (Schipper 2006). In 1997, Jintong Protocol came to terms, which is a legally binding convention on greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries. In 2011 the Durban Climate Conference in South Africa established the Ad Hoc Construction Platform for Durban Group, responsible for the specific arrangements of greenhouse gas emission reduction after 2020, and launched the Green Climate Fund officially. As a scientific method to quantitatively analyze the trend of literature, bibliometrics can help researchers to understand a research field quickly and effectively by understanding the author, institution, country, research trend, direction and so on. Moreover, the bibliometric indicators such as h-index, cooperation, reference, etc., can be used as a reference to evaluate an institution or magazine. At present, many international research areas have been used of bibliometric methods to analyze the relevant research trends. For example, Lin Lia et al. (2016) analyzed the research trends of geography ontology by means of bibliometrics and visualization; Vogel and Güttel (2013) Used the method of bibliometrics to review the viewpoints of dynamic competence in strategic management; HZ Fu et al. (2010) used the method of bibliometrics analyzed the solid waste research trends from 1993 to 2008. The wide range with many kinds of characteristics, as well as its complexity and unpredictability of the impact of the natural disasters, leading to a very wide research field, including atmospheric science, psychology, computer science, as well as economics, management and many other areas. (Kiely et al. 2010, Benight and Harper 2002, Yamamura 2011, Middleton et al. 2014). There has been extensively summarized analysis of natural disasters, such as the hotspot analysis, disaster management analysis, and so on. (Soto et al. 2015, Pörtner 2010, Van Westen, 2013, Straub 2005), The focus of these analysis is mainly on the interaction between the natural disasters and related contents in each field, or the treatment of natural disasters. However, there is no relevant analysis on the research contents and research trends of natural disaster research itself. Based on it and by the bibliometric approach, this paper will quantitatively analyze and visualize the trends of natural disaster research through the related publications from SCI and SSCI database from 1957 to 2015, in order to obtain some of the characteristics and laws of the field.